cup draws

[du Garbandier (Inactive)]

there's something going on here, so I saved a couple of days before the draw (Carabao cup, 3rd round). Successively, I got Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal... Reading (Championship side in 2029), on the fourth attempt. I'll take that.

But I seem to get top-rated clubs in cup draws more frequently than probability would suggest. When I got OL into the Champions Cup, we got Barcelona and Milan -- and here I am at Newcastle (we finished 3rd last season), and we get Milan AC, Real Madrid and Ajax. 

[Dagenham_Dave (Inactive)]

You reloaded until you got a good cup draw. I stopped reading at that point. 

[RealSmokePL (Inactive)]

So you only want easy draws until the final? I think you should just accept that it happens and believe me it happens but so do easy draws, I genuinely don't think it's an issue.

[du Garbandier (Inactive)]

Reloaded to test the issue. Everyone prefers easier draws, I dare say. What I'm saying is that I feel I'm getting a disproportionate number of difficult draws.

Edited April 16, 2022 by du Garbandier

[Junkhead (Inactive)]

50 minutes ago, du Garbandier said:

Reloaded to test the issue. Everyone prefers easier draws, I dare say. What I'm saying is that I feel I'm getting a disproportionate number of difficult draws.

The Champions League is seeded. One of the four in each group won their domestic league, the other three didn't. Assuming it was Barca who won their league, and that you were fourth seed, I imagine there were better second and third seeds than Milan and Ajax.

By the time you hit the third round of the Carabao cup, the lower league sides have mostly gone out and the really big clubs have been given a bye. It could well be that 20 of the 32 clubs at that stage are Premier League clubs, which would mean that drawing them at a ratio of 3:1 would be about right.

A good measuring stick would be to consider who you have drawn in the FA Cup third round, which has no seeding and a large amount of teams in the draw - although a third of them will still be Premier League sides, so it's still a 1/3 chance (ish).

Overall, the bigger clubs will go further in cups and therefore be in more draws. If you are doing well too, you will meet them more often. There would be nothing to gain from SI's perspective in stacking the deck against the user in cup draws. It would just annoy people and make them stop playing, which of course the developer doesn't want. Which can only mean that it could be a big - in which case why not post in the bug forum on the off chance?

Edited April 16, 2022 by Junkhead

[Dagenham_Dave (Inactive)]

58 minutes ago, du Garbandier said:

What I'm saying is that I feel I'm getting a disproportionate number of difficult draws.

Not a problem Jurgen Klopp ever has to deal with...

[du Garbandier (Inactive)]

46 minutes ago, Junkhead said:

20 of the 32 clubs at that stage are Premier League clubs

True, but half or fewer would be tough draws for a top-half team. I'm keeping an eye on it, next round of Carabao if we go through, and the FA cup. 

@Dagenham_Dave:

 

[OxfordUnitedFC (Inactive)]

It’s surely not a problem if you just reload until you get an easy draw anyway?

[du Garbandier (Inactive)]

I don't normally reload. It's just that I've felt the pattern being there over the last few seasons, so I wanted to investigate.

[OxfordUnitedFC (Inactive)]

Maybe you’ve just been unlucky. In terms of reloading 4 times until you get an easy draw, it’s a completely unrealistic situation so likely to produce unrealistic results.

[du Garbandier (Inactive)]

1 hour ago, OxfordUnitedFC said:

Maybe you’ve just been unlucky

Well, odd things happen in FM. One year I won the French cup, drawing every round including the final and going through on penalties.

[sdx15 (Inactive)]

Redo the cup draw 50+ times and then you'll get data from which you could draw conclusions that are based on facts rather than a feeling you have.

I've only noticed with domestic cup draws that I often end up playing at home but I'm to lazy to do proper research.

[du Garbandier (Inactive)]

9 hours ago, sdx15 said:

Redo the cup draw 50+

Yeah I know. I thought I might go with 10 iterations when the FA cup comes around. It is pretty tedious to do, after all.

[Mst82 (Inactive)]

I often get drawn against a team I am playing that same week in the league - then I am mysteriously asked about playing the same team in my press conference. Strange that 🤔 

[rp1966 (Inactive)]

The cup draw that causes two games in a row against the same team used to be a thing so common it had to be down to biasing the probabilities for narrative reasons (same with drawing a rival) - but it got very, very obvious and prompted a huge amount of comment on here and elsewhere.  Seems to have been removed or very toned down in the last couple of releases, but it didn't stop me getting this delightful set of fixtures in my first season promoted to the EPL with Nottiingham Forest:

Naturally this is a Man City with both Haaland and Mbappé.

Edited April 18, 2022 by rp1966